The Complexity of Irregularity: A User’s Guide
Irregularity: it’s just not what it used to be. Our increasingly complex systems are too much for the traditional management and problem-solving approaches that used to reliably handle irregular operations. Because of this, organizations find themselves frantically reevaluating their strategies and investing heavily in cutting-edge tools and technologies to better predict and manage irregular operations. For leaders tasked with managing disruptions in these mercurial environments, understanding the unique challenges of managing irregular operations is crucial. They require the right technological tools that take a nuanced approach and consider the myriad interrelated factors influencing these systems.
One crucial point: We must distinguish the fundamental differences between complex systems and their complicated cousins. Complicated systems are contained environments with a limited number of variables. They can be elaborate, such as a large assembly line or small-molecule pharmaceutical manufacturing, but they have controllable configurations. They can be reliably managed with advanced expertise, processes, recipes, and frameworks. By contrast, complex systems are characterized by dynamisms and interconnected elements. They involve too many unknowns and interrelated factors to reduce to rules and processes. Complex systems often share similar characteristics such as time pressure, high unpredictability, limited resources (such as infrastructure or qualified staff), the butterfly effect of each decision, and a range of competing interests from various stakeholders. Industries such as airline operations, supply chain and hospital operations exemplify the challenges posed by complex systems where no two days are the same.
Complicated Has an Answer, Complexity Has Trade-Offs
During irregular operations in complicated systems, algorithms and rules are structured to lead you to the optimal answer, indicating the existence of a definitive solution. However, during irregular operations in a complex system, there's no algorithm that can tell you how to respond, revealing there is often no “right” answer. Complex systems during irregular operations often lack a clear-cut solution. Not everything can be mitigated. Depending on the specific time of day, certain factors may take precedence or influence over others, contributing to the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of decision-making in these scenarios. For decision makers, they often need support in understanding not only what possible solutions could be, but the trade-offs they present.
In hospitals, managing surgeons, operating rooms (ORs), surgical teams, prep teams, equipment, and patients during irregular operations is crucial. Understanding the trade-offs of solutions to disruptions enables those managing the schedule to determine the most effective ways to return to the planned schedule as quickly as possible. This awareness is essential as delays can worsen outcomes for patients.
Understanding Information & Communication Flows to Bridge Silos
Complex systems are inherently multifaceted, requiring input from individuals with diverse but limited perspectives. This often leads to siloed decision-making, which may optimize outcomes within specific areas but can create issues elsewhere. Strong decision-making necessitates a holistic view that considers the right balance of trade-offs across the entire system. To address these challenges, it is critical to analyze the root causes of issues, understand the potential effects they may propagate, and identify who needs what information and when. By creating decision support systems that provide the right information to the right person at the right time, organizations can encourage a more integrated team dynamic and enhance holistic decision-making during irregular operations.
In airline operations, for instance, a multitude of personnel collaborate to ensure passengers and crew reach their destinations safely and efficiently. Although ops controllers, who ensure planes take off on time, do not make crew decisions, their understanding of how their decisions impact crew operations can significantly improve overall decision-making.
Assessing Impact & Predictability
When evaluating the effects of disruptions in complex systems, understanding “what” occurred sheds light on the impact to schedules or operations and who to talk to, while discerning “why” it happened provides insights into the level of predictability. Situations that are more predictable allow for proactive support in decision-making to create a plan if the issue becomes a reality. On the other hand, unpredictable situations necessitate a more reactive approach. However, the integration of diverse data sources can further aid in shifting scenarios from being unpredictable towards predictability, enhancing the overall response strategy. Even a proactive notification received a few hours before the impact can go a long way in planning mitigation actions.
In supply chain management, the ability to anticipate disruptions plays a crucial role in scenario planning and panic management. From panic buying during the COVID pandemic to preparing for the 2024 United States port strike, having foreknowledge enabled organizations to strategize effectively, allocate resources wisely and communicate necessary actions to stakeholders, ultimately minimizing the adverse effects of such disruptions on operations.
By deepening our understanding of irregular operations — both what they are and why they occur — we can transition from reactive to proactive management. We can effectively manage the unpredictable nature of complex systems and, in the process, shift from potential chaos into orchestrated harmony. Let’s do so.
